No global warming at all for 1. The Pause lengthens again – just in time for UN Summit in Paris'The Pause lengthens yet again. One- third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1. Yet the 2. 25 months since then show no global warming at all. With this month’s RSS (Remote Sensing Systems satellite) temperature record, the Pause beats last month’s record and now stands at 1. By: Marc Morano - Climate Depot. November 4, 2. 01.

PM with 2. 02. 4 comments. Special To Climate Depot.

The Pause lengthens again – just in time for Paris. No global warming at all for 1. By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley.

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As the faithful gather around their capering shamans in Paris for the New Superstition’s annual festival of worship, the Pause lengthens yet again. One- third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1. Yet the 2. 25 months since then show no global warming at all (Fig. With this month’s RSS temperature record, the Pause beats last month’s record and now stands at 1. Figure 1. The least- squares linear- regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 1. February 1. 99. 7, though one- third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.

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The accidental delegate from Burma provoked shrieks of fury from the congregation during the final benediction in Doha three years ago, when he said the Pause had endured for 1. Now, almost three years later, the Pause is almost three years longer. It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause.

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NOAA, in a very rare fit of honesty, admitted in its 2. State of the Climate report that 1. The reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.

The steepness of this predicted response can be seen in Fig. Professor Richard Lindzen’s former student Professor Gerard Roe in 2. The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming. But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 1. February 1. 99. 7, not a flicker of warming has resulted. Figure 1a: Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing.

Instead, no warming at all is occurring. Based on Roe (2. 00. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over- predict warming so grossly.

The current el Ni. The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude. From next month on, the Pause will probably shorten dramatically and may disappear altogether for a time.

However, if there is a following la Ni. The start date is not cherry- picked: it is calculated.

And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate. And yes, the start- date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end- date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen. So long a stasis in global temperature is simply inconsistent not only with the extremist predictions of the computer models but also with the panic whipped up by the rent- seeking profiteers of doom rubbing their hands with glee in Paris. The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. However, the much- altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig.

Figure 1b. The least- squares linear- regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had. CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1. C. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever. The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur. The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general- circulation models and observed reality. The divergence between the models’ predictions in 1. Fig. 2) and 2. 00.

Fig. 3), on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, continues to widen. If the Pause lengthens just a little more, the rate of warming in the quarter- century since the IPCC’s First Assessment Report in 1. C. Near- term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2. Predicted temperature change, January 2.

September 2. 01. 5, at a rate equivalent to 1. In a rational scientific discourse, those who had advocated extreme measures to prevent global warming would now be withdrawing and calmly rethinking their hypotheses. However, this is not a rational scientific discourse. On the questioners’ side it is rational: on the believers’ side it is a matter of increasingly blind faith. The New Superstition is no fides quaerens intellectum. Key facts about global temperature.

These facts should be shown to anyone who persists in believing that, in the words of Mr Obama’s Twitteratus, “global warming is real, manmade and dangerous”. The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 2. February 1. 99. 7 to Octber 2. There has been no warming even though one- third of all anthropogenic forcings since 1. Pause began in February 1. Since 1. 95. 0, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.

C. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us. The fastest warming rate lasting 1. It was equivalent to 2.

C. The IPCC had predicted close to thrice as much. Cult Classics Movies My Italian Secret (2015) here. To meet the IPCC’s central prediction of 1 C. It is as simple as that.

Technical note. Our latest topical graph shows the least- squares linear- regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower- troposphere dataset for as far back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend. The start- date is not “cherry- picked” so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by the 1. Ni. Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend.

The fact of a long Pause is an indication of the widening discrepancy between prediction and reality in the temperature record. The satellite datasets are arguably less unreliable than other datasets in that they show the 1. Great El Ni. The Great el Ni. Thermometers correctly sited in rural areas away from manmade heat sources show warming rates below those that are published. The satellite datasets are based on reference measurements made by the most accurate thermometers available – platinum resistance thermometers, which provide an independent verification of the temperature measurements by checking via spaceward mirrors the known temperature of the cosmic background radiation, which is 1% of the freezing point of water, or just 2. It was by measuring minuscule variations in the cosmic background radiation that the NASA anisotropy probe determined the age of the Universe: 1. The RSS graph (Fig.

The data are lifted monthly straight from the RSS website. A computer algorithm reads them down from the text file and plots them automatically using an advanced routine that automatically adjusts the aspect ratio of the data window at both axes so as to show the data at maximum scale, for clarity.

The latest monthly data point is visually inspected to ensure that it has been correctly positioned. How To Watch The Full Phantom Halo (2015) Movie here. The light blue trend line plotted across the dark blue spline- curve that shows the actual data is determined by the method of least- squares linear regression, which calculates the y- intercept and slope of the line. The IPCC and most other agencies use linear regression to determine global temperature trends.

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